Tuesday, January 21, 2025

It’s Time to Dream Big Again

By Jeff Brown, Editor, The Bleeding Edge
"The spirit of the frontier is written into our hearts. The call of the next great adventure resounds from within our souls."
President Donald J. Trump, Inaugural Address, January 20, 2025
In 1962 the U.S. was in a brutal face-off with Russia as its primary adversary, a country that was demonstrating impressive progress with its space program.
The Soviet Union had not only marked the beginning of the space age in 1957 with the successful launch of Sputnik 1, but it had also already put astronaut Yuri Gagarin into orbit in April of 1961.
Russia had beaten the U.S. in putting the first satellite and man into outer space.
The threat of the Soviet Union being first to the moon was not only real, it was measurable given the rapid progress being made.
Gagarin's successful orbit of Earth in April 1961 was the catalyst for a remarkable speech given by President John F. Kennedy before a joint session of Congress on May 25, 1961.
Mission to the Moon
Kennedy spoke of the critical juncture the U.S. space program found itself in, what the country needed to do about it, and why it must be unified in its mission.
JFK speaking before Congress, May 25, 1961 | Source: NASA
It was a remarkable speech at a remarkable time…
Space is open to us now, and our eagerness to share its meaning is not governed by the efforts of others. We go into space because whatever mankind must undertake, free men must fully share.
There was no ambiguity in JFK's message: The U.S. must put a man on the moon and return him safely to Earth. In JFK's words:
First, I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.
No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important for the long-range exploration of space, and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish.
We propose to accelerate the development of the appropriate lunar spacecraft. We propose to develop alternate liquid and solid fuel boosters, much larger than any now being developed, until certain which is superior.
We propose additional funds for other engine development and for unmanned explorations – explorations which are particularly important for one purpose which this nation will never overlook: the survival of the man who first makes this daring flight. But in a very real sense, it will not be one man going to the moon – if we make this judgment affirmatively, it will be an entire nation. For all of us must work to put him there.
JFK even went further afield, suggesting an even more ambitious exploration of space…
Secondly, an additional 23 million dollars, together with 7 million dollars already available, will accelerate development of the Rover nuclear rocket. This gives promise of someday providing a means for even more exciting and ambitious exploration of space, perhaps beyond the moon, perhaps to the very end of the solar system itself.
Of course, we know how the story ended.
Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin made it to the lunar surface on July 20, 1969, and successfully returned to Earth… indeed, before the end of that decade.
I couldn't help but be reminded of JFK's proclamation to go to the moon – and how it ignited the nation in a unified mission to beat the Soviet Union – when I was watching President Trump's inauguration speech yesterday.
The United States will once again consider itself a growing nation, one that increases our wealth, expands our territory, builds our cities, raises our expectations, and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons. And we will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars, launching American astronauts to plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars.
Yes. We're going to Mars…
And we're going a lot sooner than most people think.
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No Greater Ambition or Achievement
NASA's Artemis program to return to the moon is already well-established and moving forward.
And while the new missions to the moon will be more significant than those during the Apollo program – and lay the foundation for a permanent presence on the lunar surface – it's something that the U.S. had already done in 1969.
Mars is as grand of a vision today as the moon was back in the 1960s. It's our nearest planet capable of supporting a manned outpost, and – at least in the short term – the human race's best option for becoming a multi-planetary species.
If we care about the long-term survival of the human race, there is nothing more important for us to achieve.
Ironically, President Trump's proclamation comes with more certainty than President JFK's plans to go to the moon. The advancements in not just in aerospace technology, but any technology related to space exploration have been remarkable in the last five decades.
And of course, there is one company at the forefront of it all: The most innovative aerospace company in history, the one that will make Trump's vision of planting a U.S. flag on Mars a reality… SpaceX.
It would be logical to assume discussions with Elon Musk had some influence on such an ambitious national goal. SpaceX has transformed the industry and dominates in both launch capacity and number of successful missions to Earth's orbit. There is no company or country even close.
And it's the rapid improvements and development of the SpaceX Starship that are key to making it to Mars.
Last week, on January 16, SpaceX launched its seventh test launch of a Starship. The media, as usual, was highly critical, as the Starship itself blew up before reaching orbit.
Musk and his team were quick to determine the likely cause:
But the test launch was still impressive, nonetheless. SpaceX was able to return the first-stage booster to the pad, with another picture-perfect catch by the Mechazilla.
Starship's first stage caught by Mechazilla | Source: SpaceX
I suspected that there may be some issues on this test launch, as SpaceX had a complete redesign of the avionics, a redesign in the propulsion system, and new feedline systems for the Raptor engines. This was a major upgrade to the Starship, so it wasn't without added risk.
And as we saw in Musk's comment above, the plan is to learn, to make further improvements, and to launch the next test flight in February. The point isn't perfection. It's to push the boundaries, test capabilities, and improve rapidly on a short feedback loop.
One of the key reasons SpaceX can innovate so quickly is the rapid iterations of its technology.
And now speed is more important than ever before.
Critical Windows
While President Trump didn't give any specific timeline for planting a flag on Mars, planetary alignments define Mars launch "windows."
These windows are critically important, as they only arrive every 26 months.
They represent the optimal time to launch – that which requires the least amount of fuel and travel time to reach the red planet.
The next windows are:
  • November 24, 2026
  • December 10, 2026
  • December 31, 2028
  • January 16, 2029
Four dates in the next four years.
Musk has long stated the goal to send uncrewed Starships (plural) to Mars in the November and December windows in 2026.
Given Trump's proclamation, this presents an opportunity to include payloads on those Starships – to send materials in advance of a crewed mission.
If the Starships successfully land, this would be an incredible asset for future crewed missions.
Success in 2026 could make a December 2028 or January 2029 launch of a crewed mission possible before the end of President Trump's second term.
And if that doesn't happen, early 2032 would be an almost certainty.
It's happening. We're going to Mars!
It's time to dream big again. It was this belief that prompted JFK's "Why Go To the Moon?" speech at Rice University on September 12, 1962. It's this speech that tends to be remembered the most, regarding the ambitions of the U.S. space program during the 1960s.
We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things not because they are easy, but because they are hard.
JFK's vision inspired millions who wanted to pursue careers in science and engineering. I believe that Trump's mission to Mars will do the same.
It's time to dream big. It's time to go to Mars.
Jeff

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