The Best and Worst of the Trillion-Dollar Club “I don’t want to belong to any club that would accept me as one of its members.” That’s according to legendary comedian Groucho Marx. Funny… and probably true in some cases. But there’s one club any company would accept membership in: the $1 trillion dollar club. When Apple (AAPL) hit that blockbuster market valuation in 2018, club membership stood at a grand total of one. A little over six years later, the annual meetings are a little bigger as the club has grown to 11 companies around the world. It’s remarkable when you think about it. It took until 2018 for the first company to pop above the $1 trillion market cap (though there are nuances to that), and 10 more have topped that legendary valuation in just six years. That shows well the growth in the market and the faster path to mega-cap status that is possible in our world today. As you would expect, club membership consists of mostly household names. All but one – Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company – trade on U.S. exchanges. Of the 10 traded in the U.S., eight are tech companies – though I think Tesla (TSLA) could also be considered a tech company even though it’s classified as an auto manufacturer. The other non-tech company is Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Warren Buffett’s legendary holding company. Trillion-dollar valuations are impressive, but they are not automatic buy signals – at least not from a quantitative analysis perspective. A little more than half have Quantum Scores in the 70 to 85 range that I target for buying opportunities. Here’s the list in order of market capitalization with the accompanying Quantum Score: - Nvidia (NVDA): 81.0
- Apple (AAPL): 46.5
- Microsoft (MSFT): 67.2
- Amazon.com (AMZN): 74.1
- Alphabet (GOOG): 72.4
- Meta Platforms (META): 79.3
- Tesla (TSLA): 67.2
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): 77.6
- Broadcom (AVGO): 70.7
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B): 60.3
It is mathematically harder for giant companies to appreciate in value as much and as rapidly as smaller companies. And as I have mentioned before, small- and medium-sized companies have nice tailwinds here in 2025 that I think make the right ones extra juicy opportunities. These are the stocks I focus on in Quantum Edge Pro. At the same time, it’s impressive that 60% of that list is in the buy zone. That means they have strong fundamentals – which isn’t surprising given their massive valuations – and solid technical strength. It also means a roughly 70% probability of higher prices in the future. The winner of that group, at least from a quant analysis standpoint, is clearly Nvidia (NVDA). We all know Nvidia now, the poster child for artificial intelligence investments with its in-demand processors. Longtime readers will recall that I have owned it for years, and I recommended that my father buy it in early 2017 – he's now up roughly 5,000%. Source: Quantum Edge Pro NVDA has the highest Quantum Score, and I love the balance between the Fundamental Score and the Technical Score. This is not just a Wall Street darling momentum play. There is real meat behind the business, the technology, and its growth. Shares have soared more than 650% the last two years, so I wouldn’t expect them to continue at that pace. But the data clearly points to more upside. That’s not the case with Apple (AAPL), the inaugural member of the trillion-dollar club. Source: Quantum Edge Pro AAPL is obviously a legendary company and stock. Shares have rocketed more than 20,000% the last two decades. They have trailed the S&P 500 the last year, gaining 15% versus the 25% run in the index. The last month has been especially rough as AAPL fell nearly 15%. Apple’s iconic iPhone reportedly fell to third in market share in China, sparking concern about global demand. In addition, the company’s push into AI – appropriately named Apple Intelligence – doesn’t seem to have significantly sparked demand. Apple reports earnings next week, and estimates are for 7.8% earnings growth on 3.8% sales growth. That unexciting Quantum Score of 46.5 tells me almost immediately that AAPL is not a buy here and that the probability of significant upside from here is lower than I would want to see. That’s confirmed by poor ratings on the fundamentals and technicals as well. The technicals I get, and they can change quickly if buyers step in – especially Big Money. But the so-so fundamentals are a bigger concern, with both earnings and sales growing an average of about 2.5% the last three years. And I know Apple has a ton of cash, but high debt at roughly three times equity is also a red flag. I still say the biggest opportunities in 2025 will be in smaller companies. It’s so much easier for a smaller company’s valuation to double from $5 billion to $10 billion than from $3.5 trillion to $7 trillion, which is what Nvidia would need to do. That’s why we’re laser-focused on these kinds of opportunities right now in Quantum Edge Pro. In fact, the stock we just added this week checks in at a $1.9 billion market cap – and a nearly perfect 79.3 Quantum Score. (Click here to learn more about how you can join today and receive immediate access to all my recommended stocks as well as the Quantum Score for every stock my system tracks.) But a well-diversified portfolio will also have bigger companies, which I focus on in TradeSmith Investment Report. And as the trillion-dollar club reminds us, the highest valuations in the market don’t automatically equate to the best opportunities in the market. You still need to do the analysis and identify those with the Quantum Edge trifecta that gives you the highest probability of making money – superior fundamentals, strong technical, and Big Money flowing in. Talk soon, Jason Bodner Editor, Jason Bodner’s Power Trends Disclosure: On the date of publication, Jason Bodner held a position in Nvidia (NVDA) mentioned in this article. |
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