Saturday, October 12, 2024

Dividend Investor Insights: Four Dividend Stocks to Buy as Inflation Shields

Four Dividend Stocks to Buy as Inflation Shields

10/12/2024

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Four dividend stocks to buy as inflation shields feature precious metals mining companies that provide traditional protection against such risk.

The four dividend stocks to buy as inflation shields also can help insulate investors from other economic distress and the geopolitical risk that currently is on the rise from ongoing wars. These four potential paths to profit through precious metals have been recognized by the BofA Global Research commodities team that recently wrote bullishly about silver and gold, forecasting that the latter can hit a new record of $3,000 per ounce in the next 12-18 months.

Precious metals mining stocks gained a boost from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Sept. 18 federal funds rate cut of 0.50%, equaling 50 basis points. That cut in the target rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight is expected by forecasters to be followed by a further reduction of 50 basis points between the remaining two FOMC meetings this year. Additional cuts of 100 basis points in 2025 and 50 basis points in 2026 currently are anticipated to reach a rate of 2.9% that may hold through 2027.


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The BofA analysts opined that precious metals prices were held up due to the need for a Federal Reserve rate cut to spur an influx of non-commercial buyers like central banks around the world. As the market priced in a rate cut, gold rallied to many all-time new highs in the third quarter of 2024. While stimulus from China's government could strengthen the outlook for global growth and potentially reduce the likelihood of increasing Fed rate cuts, other factors also can further spur precious metals prices.

Ongoing central bank purchases are one such important factor, and a push to reduce the share of the U.S. dollar in foreign exchange portfolios will likely drive increased precious metals purchases from central banks. Continued buying of gold by increasingly wealthy Chinese consumers who also may view the yellow metal as a sensible diversifier in real estate-oriented investment portfolios, could support the price of shiny commodity, too. Demand from India also has helped to buoy gold prices.

Four Dividend Stocks to Buy as Inflation Shields: Pan American Silver

A silver miner that earned the top recommendation of public companies in its niche from BofA Global Research is Pan American Silver (NYSE: PASS). The Vancouver, Canada-based mining company focuses on silver and gold through operations in Canada, Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile and Argentina.

The company also owns the Escobal mine in Guatemala that is currently not operational. It further holds interests in other exploration and development projects. Pan American Silver has a track record of operating in the Americas for three decades.

BofA's price objective for Pan American Silver is $28.00, based on the stock trading at 1.25x the investment firm's estimated net asset value (NAV) on a net investments-adjusted basis. The investment firm estimated NAV for PASS based on a 5% discount rate. Historically, North American precious metal stocks have traded between one and three times NAV, with silver producers generally selling at a discount to gold producers.


Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

BofA's price objective could be topped if commodity prices exceed forecasts, a positive change occurs in the regulatory/permitting environment in the Chubut province of Argentina where Pan American's dormant Navidad project is located, operating results beat expectations and capital costs are reduced, BofA wrote. Risks to Pan American Silver reaching the BofA price goal could unfold from unforeseen operating issues, heightened capital costs, commodity prices dipping under forecasts and regulatory woes such as environmental and permitting hurdles, or new taxes causing a short fall in financial results.

Pan American Silver Corp. turned into a successful buy recommendation in the Fast Money Alert trading service led by Mark Skousen, PhD, and Jim Woods, a seasoned market maven. The duo recommended PAAS on August 27, 2019, advised its sale on February 27, 2020, and produced a profit of 24.43% on the stock in just six months.


Ben Franklin scion Mark Skousen, who heads Fast Money Alert and Forecasts & Strategies, talks to Paul Dykewicz at a Money Show.

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Four Dividend Stocks to Buy as Inflation Shields: Woods Shares Wisdom

As a trading service that recommends both stocks and options, Fast Money Alert also instructed its subscribers to buy related January 17, 2020, call options. By the Skousen and Woods advised taking profits, the call options had soared 110.45% in just 125 days. Woods also has another service that profits from commodities called Crypto and Commodities Trader.


Jim Woods, an ex-U.S. Army paratrooper, leads the Successful Investing investment newsletter, the Crypto and Commodities Trader advisory service and co-heads the Fast Money Alert service.

Woods recommended a silver investment in his recently launched Crypto and Commodities Trader advisory service. That position remains a current recommendation.

His Crypto and Commodities Trader advisory service subscribers who followed his guidance to buy call options in a different commodity were able to book a 160% gain in just six days. Woods explained that now is a great time to invest in cryptocurrencies and commodities, particularly with some experts viewing the stock market as overvalued.

Four Dividend Stocks to Buy as Inflation Shields: Agnico Eagle Mines

The No. 1 gold recommendation of BofA is Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM), a Toronto, Canada-based company. Agnico Eagle Mines is one of the gold mining stocks that gained a lift after the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Sept. 18 Fed Funds rate cut of 0.50%, equaling 50 basis points. Prognosticators expect cuts totaling 50 basis points between the remaining two FOMC meetings this year, 100 basis points in 2025 and 50 basis points in 2026 to reach a rate of 2.9% that may hold through 2027.

Some experts suggest investors have 5-10% of a given portfolio invested in gold. A key reason is that gold acts as an insurance policy for a portfolio, since when everything else goes down, gold tends to go up.

Even though gold is unlikely to produce the stellar returns of a high-flying technology stock, it typically minimizes the downside if a market bubble pops, a geopolitical crisis hits, or some other market catastrophe occurs. The dollars invested in gold mining stocks also can provide investors with dividend payouts. The potential upside is a key reason for compiling this list of the best dividend-paying precious metals stocks to buy for protection from an array of risks.

Agnico Eagle Mines has gold mining operations in Canada, Finland, Australia and Mexico. The mining company's exploration and development activities also extend to the United States.

The mining company has full exposure to rising gold prices consistent with its policy of no-forward gold sales. Citigroup wrote in a recent research note that it forecasts AEM's 2024 estimated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to climb 1% to $4.6 billion. The mining company's 2025 estimated EBITDA remains flat at $5.8 billion. The price target that Citigroup has set for AEM is US$80 per share, based on 1.2x price/NAV multiple and Citi's bullish view on gold prices.

Re-investment going forward should climb as projects are built to offset depleting marginal assets, but capital intensity appears relatively modest, Citigroup analysts wrote. The Citi Commodity team remains bullish on gold with its price estimate of $2,400 per ounce in 2024 already exceeded. For 2025, Citi foresees gold prices reaching about $2,900 per ounce, materially increasing earnings estimates even with elevated costs.


Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

The Fast Money Alert trading service also helped its subscribers profit handsomely by recommending AEM options and stock for just two months earlier in 2024. The options soared 144.29%, while the stock price climbed 21.03% before the trading service leaders recommended taking profits.

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Four Dividend Stocks to Buy as Inflation Shields: Barrick Gold

BofA's price objective for Toronto, Canada-based Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) is $24.00 per share and is based on the stock trading at 1.00 times the investment bank's estimated net asset value (NAV) for the mining stock. Historically, North American precious metal stocks have traded between 1-and-3 times NAV, with unhedged, growth-oriented producers that have assets located in relatively geopolitically stable regions occupying the upper end of the range, BofA wrote.

BofA further wrote that it shied away from assigning a higher target P/NAV multiple due to Barrick's stable gold output. Risks to reaching BofA's price objective for Barrick Gold are commodity price weakness, any inability to secure financing for expansion or development projects, unforeseen operating problems, political or legal challenges in the regions in which the company operates, rising capital and operating costs and delays in the development of its growth projects.

With no end in sight for ballooning global fiscal spending and more foreign governments selling their U.S. dollars to buy more gold, the prices for the precious metal should continue their upward trend, said Michelle Connell, who heads Dallas-based Portia Capital.


Michelle Connell heads Portia Capital.

GOLD should be a profitable way to benefit from the uptrend in the price of the precious metal, Connell told me. The mining company has strong fundamentals, a solid cash flow for the last 10 years and increasing margins, she added.

GOLD holds a geographically diverse portfolio of mines across the globe, thus having lower geopolitical risk, Connell continued. However, GOLD has trailed its competitors in terms of price performance.

"I would establish a partial position here and add to pullbacks," Connell concluded.


Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

Four Dividend Stocks to Buy as Inflation Shields: Newmont Mining

Greenwood, Village, Colorado-based Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) was another successful recommendation in the Fast Money Alert trading service co-led by Skousen and Woods. They produced a gain of nearly 19% for their Fast Money Alert subscribers with a recommendation in NEM earlier in 2024. A related options recommendation produced potent profits that averaged 288.92%, after the position was sold in two parts.

Citigroup rates Newmont as a buy with a target price of $57 per share due to a 1.2x price/net asset value (NAV) multiple that is in line with the investment bank's global gold coverage. The investment firm is assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of about 5.0% and a long-term gold price of $1,600 per ounce.

Despite the buy recommendation, keys risks to Citigroup's investment thesis and valuation on NEM include commodity exposure, political risk -- particularly with its Africa operations -- and operating risk. If the impact from the risks outlined turns out to be greater or less than estimated, the shares could fail to reach or may exceed Citigroup's target price, its equity research analysts wrote.

The volatility of metals pricing factors into Citigroup's evaluation of Newmont. Gold pricing is driven by several market factors, including mining output, scrap availability, central bank sales and U.S. inflation rates, Citigroup wrote.


Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com

The four dividend stocks to buy as inflation shields offer investors income and a traditional measure of protection through precious metals. The protection of silver and gold also could help to insulate investors from the uncertainty of a hotly contested presidential election set for Nov. 5.

Sincerely,

Paul Dykewicz, Editor
DividendInvestor.com

About Paul Dykewicz:

Paul Dykewicz is an accomplished, award-winning journalist who has written for Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, USA Today, Seeking Alpha, GuruFocus and other publications and websites. Paul is the editor of StockInvestor.com and DividendInvestor.com, a writer for both websites and a columnist. He further is the editorial director of Eagle Financial Publications in Washington, D.C., where he edits monthly investment newsletters, time-sensitive trading alerts, free e-letters and other investment reports. Paul also is the author of an inspirational book, "Holy Smokes! Golden Guidance from Notre Dame's Championship Chaplain", with a foreword by former national championship-winning football coach Lou Holtz. Follow Paul on Twitter @PaulDykewicz.

 
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